A study of variability of annual river flow of the southern African region     

BERHANU FANTA  B. T. ZAAKE  R. K. KACHROO 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):513-524

Abstract

Variability of river flow is investigated in 502 river flow gauging stations in nine countries of the southern African region with a view to document the spatial variability of the river flow regimes. Those regions where there is strong evidence of declining or increasing trend in annual runoff have been identified. The study has shown that runoff in the region ranges from over 320 mm year^?1 in the Lower Zambezi and the highlands of Tanzania to less than 10 mm year^?1 in the deserts of Namibia and the Kalahari. There is also evidence of declining runoff in parts of Zambia, Angola, Mozambique and the High Veld in South Africa. The recent decline seems to have started from around 1975.  相似文献   

Design hydrograph estimation in small and ungauged watersheds: continuous simulation method versus event‐based approach     

S. Grimaldi  A. Petroselli  F. Serinaldi 《水文研究》2012,26(20):3124-3134

The proper assessment of design hydrographs and their main properties (peak, volume and duration) in small and ungauged basins is a key point of many hydrological applications. In general, two types of methods can be used to evaluate the design hydrograph: one approach is based on the statistics of storm events, while the other relies on continuously simulating rainfall‐runoff time series. In the first class of methods, the design hydrograph is obtained by applying a rainfall‐runoff model to a design hyetograph that synthesises the storm event. In the second approach, the design hydrograph is quantified by analysing long synthetic runoff time series that are obtained by transforming synthetic rainfall sequences through a rainfall‐runoff model. These simulation‐based procedures overcome some of the unrealistic hypotheses which characterize the event‐based approaches. In this paper, a simulation experiment is carried out to examine the differences between the two types of methods in terms of the design hydrograph's peak, volume and duration. The results conclude that the continuous simulation methods are preferable because the event‐based approaches tend to underestimate the hydrograph's volume and duration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Crustal structure of the Ordovician Macquarie Arc,Eastern Lachlan Orogen,based on seismic‐reflection profiling     

R. A. Glen  R. J. Korsch  N. G. Direen  L. E. A. Jones  D. W. Johnstone  K. C. Lawrie 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(2):323-348

In the Eastern Lachlan Orogen, the mineralised Molong and Junee‐Narromine Volcanic Belts are two structural belts that once formed part of the Ordovician Macquarie Arc, but are now separated by younger Silurian‐Devonian strata as well as by Ordovician quartz‐rich turbidites. Interpretation of deep seismic reflection and refraction data across and along these belts provides answers to some of the key questions in understanding the evolution of the Eastern Lachlan Orogen—the relationship between coeval Ordovician volcanics and quartz‐rich turbidites, and the relationship between separate belts of Ordovician volcanics and the intervening strata. In particular, the data provide evidence for major thrust juxtaposition of the arc rocks and Ordovician quartz‐rich turbidites, with Wagga Belt rocks thrust eastward over the arc rocks of the Junee‐Narromine Volcanic Belt, and the Adaminaby Group thrust north over arc rocks in the southern part of the Molong Volcanic Belt. The seismic data also provide evidence for regional contraction, especially for crustal‐scale deformation in the western part of the Junee‐Narromine Volcanic Belt. The data further suggest that this belt and the Ordovician quartz‐rich turbidites to the east (Kirribilli Formation) were together thrust over ?Cambrian‐Ordovician rocks of the Jindalee Group and associated rocks along west‐dipping inferred faults that belong to a set that characterises the middle crust of the Eastern Lachlan Orogen. The Macquarie Arc was subsequently rifted apart in the Silurian‐Devonian, with Ordovician volcanics preserved under the younger troughs and shelves (e.g. Hill End Trough). The Molong Volcanic Belt, in particular, was reworked by major down‐to‐the‐east normal faults that were thrust‐reactivated with younger‐on‐older geometries in the late Early ‐ Middle Devonian and again in the Carboniferous.  相似文献   

Meso‐scale particle modeling of concrete deterioration caused by alkali‐aggregate reaction     

Jianwen Pan  Y. T. Feng  Feng Jin  Yanjie Xu  Qicheng Sun  Chuhan Zhang  D. R. J. Owen 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(16):2690-2705

A meso‐scale particle model is presented to simulate the expansion of concrete subjected to alkali‐aggregate reaction (AAR) and to analyze the AAR‐induced degradation of the mechanical properties. It is the first attempt to evaluate the deterioration mechanism due to AAR using the discrete‐element method. A three‐phase meso‐scale model for concrete composed of aggregates, mortar and the interface is established with the combination of a pre‐processing approach and the particle flow code, PFC2D. A homogeneous aggregate expansion approach is applied to model the AAR expansion. Uniaxial compression tests are conducted for the AAR‐affected concrete to examine the effects on the mechanical properties. Two specimens with different aggregate sizes are analyzed to consider the effects of aggregate size on AAR. The results show that the meso‐scale particle model is valid to predict the expansion and the internal micro‐cracking patterns caused by AAR. The two different specimens exhibit similar behavior. The Young's modulus and compressive strength are significantly reduced with the increase of AAR expansion. The shape of the stress–strain curves obtained from the compression tests clearly reflects the influence of internal micro‐cracks: an increased nonlinearity before the peak loading and a more gradual softening for more severely affected specimens. Similar macroscopic failure patterns of the specimens under compression are observed in terms of diagonal macroscopic cracks splitting the specimen into several triangular pieces, whereas localized micro‐cracks forming in slightly affected specimens are different from branching and diffusing cracks in severely affected ones, demonstrating different failure mechanisms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Groundwater dating with 3H and SF6 in relation to mixing patterns,transport modelling and hydrochemistry     

A. Zuber  S. Witczak  K. Ra&#x;ski  I. liwka  M. Opoka  P. Mochalski  T. Kuc  J. Karlikowska  J. Kania  M. Jackowicz‐Korczy&#x;ski  M. Duli&#x;ski 《水文研究》2005,19(11):2247-2275

A comprehensive study of a sandy aquifer of deltaic origin in southern Poland included water chemistry, isotopes, dissolved trace gases and transport modelling. Tritium, sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) and freons (F‐11, F‐12 and F‐113) showed the presence of modern waters in the recharge areas and shallow confined parts of the aquifer. The presence of older Holocene waters farther from the recharge areas was indicated by lack of ³H, SF₆ contents ≤0·02 fmol l⁻¹ and relatively low ¹⁴C values. The discharge from the system is by upward seepage in the valley of a major river. Pre‐Holocene waters of a cooler climate, identified on the basis of δ¹⁸O, δ²H, ¹⁴C, Ne and Ar data, were found in some distant wells. Concentrations of N₂, Ne and Ar determined by gas chromatography were used for calculating the noble gas temperatures, air excess needed for correction of SF₆, and nitrogen content released by denitrification process. The time series of ³H content available for some wells supplied quantitative information on age distributions and the total mean ages of flow through the unsaturated and saturated zones. The derived ³H age distributions turned out to be very wide, with mean values in the range of about 30 to 160 years. For each well with determined ³H age, the SF₆ data showed either a lower age range or the possibility of a lower age as expected due to shorter travel times of SF₆ through the unsaturated zone, which most probably also resulted in different types of age distributions of these tracers. Freons appeared to be of little use for individual age determinations. A quantitative estimation of two‐component mixing from SF₆ ³H relations is not possible unless the travel time of ³H through the unsaturated zone is comparable to that of SF₆. The ratio of integrals of the response function over the age range with tracer and the whole response function yields the ratio of water with tracer to total flow of water. That ratio is a tracer‐dependent function of time. Transport modelling of SF₆ tracer done with MT3D code yielded initially large discrepancies between calculated and measured tracer concentrations. Some discrepancies remained even after calibration of the transport model with SF₆. Simulation of tritium contents with a calibrated transport model yielded reasonable agreement with measured contents in some wells and indicated a need for further investigations, particularly in the eastern part of the aquifer. The existence of distinct hydrochemical zones is consistent with the tracer data; young waters with measurable ³H and SF₆ contents are aerobic and of HCO₃ Ca or HCO₃ SO₄ Ca types. Slightly elevated Na and Cl contents, as well as the highest concentrations of SO₄ and NO₃ within this zone are due to anthropogenic influences. Anaerobic conditions prevail in the far field, under the confining cover, where pre‐bomb era Holocene waters dominate. In that zone, dissolved oxygen, NO₃ and U contents are reduced, and Fe, Mn and NH₄ contents increase. In the third zone, early Holocene and glacial waters occur. They are of HCO₃ Ca Na or HCO₃ Na types, with TDS values higher than 1 g l⁻¹ and Na content higher than 200 mg l⁻¹, due to either small admixtures of ascending or diffusing older water or freshening of marine sediments, a process that is probably occurring till the present time. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Application of K-feldspar–jadeite–quartz barometry to eclogite facies metagranites and metapelites in the Sesia Lanzo Zone (Western Alps, Italy)*     

TROPPER  ESSENE  SHARP  & HUNZIKER 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》1999,17(2):195-209

The eclogite facies assemblage K-feldspar–jadeite–quartz in metagranites and metapelites from the Sesia-Lanzo Zone (Western Alps, Italy) records the equilibration pressure by dilution of the reaction jadeite+quartz=albite. The metapelites show partial transformation from a pre-Alpine assemblage of garnet (Alm₆₃Prp₂₆Grs₁₀)–K-feldspar–plagioclase–biotite±sillimanite to the Eo-Alpine high-pressure assemblage garnet (Alm₅₀Prp₁₄Grs₃₅)–jadeite (Jd_80–97Di_0–4Hd_0–8Acm_0–7)–zoisite–phengite. Plagioclase is replaced by jadeite–zoisite–kyanite–K-feldspar–quartz, and biotite is replaced by garnet–phengite or omphacite–kyanite–phengite. Equilibrium was attained only in local domains in the metapelites and therefore the K-feldspar–jadeite–quartz (KJQ) barometer was applied only to the plagioclase pseudomorphs and K-feldspar domains. The albite content of K-feldspar ranges from 4 to 11 mol% in less equilibrated assemblages from Val Savenca and from 4 to 7 mol% in the partially equilibrated samples from Monte Mucrone and the equilibrated samples from Montestrutto and Tavagnasco. Thermodynamic calculations on the stability of the assemblage K-feldspar–jadeite–quartz using available mixing data for K-feldspar and pyroxene indicate pressures of 15–21 kbar (±1.6–1.9 kbar) at 550±50 °C. This barometer yields direct pressure estimates in high-pressure rocks where pressures are seldom otherwise fixed, although it is sensitive to analytical precision and the choice of thermodynamic mixing model for K-feldspar. Moreover, the KJQ barometer is independent of the ratio PH2O/P_T. The inferred limiting a(H₂O) for the assemblage jadeite–kyanite in the metapelites from Val Savenca is low and varies from 0.2 to 0.6.  相似文献   

A Linked Physical and Biological Framework to Assess Biogeochemical Dynamics in a Shallow Estuarine Ecosystem     

C. P. Buzzelli  R. L. Wetzel  M. B. Meyers 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1999,49(6):829

The littoral zone of Chesapeake Bay contains a mosaic of shallow vegetated and nonvegetated habitats with biotic components that are sensitive to changes in biological and physical driving factors. Static and dynamic modelling frameworks provide an integrative way to study complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical processes in linked estuarine habitats. In this study we describe a spatial simulation model developed and calibrated relative to a specific littoral zone, estuarine ecosystem. The model consisted of four distinct habitats that contained phytoplankton, sediment microalgae, Zostera marina (eelgrass), and Spartina alterniflora. There was tidal exchange of phytoplankton, particulate and dissolved organic carbon and dissolved inorganic nitrogen between the littoral zone ecosystem and the offshore channel. Physical exchange and biogeochemical transformations within the habitats determined water column concentrations in each habitat. Predicted subtidal water column concentrations and Z. marina and S. alterniflora biomass were within the variability of validation data and the predicted annual rates of net primary production were similar to measured rates. Phytoplankton accounted for 17%, sediment microalgae 46%, the Z. marina community 24% and S. alterniflora 13% of the annual littoral zone primary production. The linked habitat model provided insights into producer, habitat and ecosystem carbon and nitrogen properties that might not have been evident with stand-alone models. Although it was an intra-ecosystem sink for particulate carbon, the seagrass habitat was a DOC source and responsible for over 30% of the littoral zone carbon and nitrogen primary production. The model predicted that the Goodwin Islands littoral zone was a sink of channel derived POC, but a source of DOC to the surrounding estuary. The framework created in this study of estuarine ecosystem dynamics is applicable to many different aquatic systems over a range of spatial and temporal scales.  相似文献   

A review of the climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf hurricanes for wind, wave, and surge hazard estimation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

D.H. Levinson  P.J. Vickery 《Ocean Engineering》2010,37(1):13-25

The climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are presented, focusing on the basic parameters needed for accurately determining the structure and intensity of hurricanes for ocean response models. These include the maximum sustained wind, radius of maximum winds, the Holland-B parameter, the peripheral or far-field pressure, the surface roughness and coefficient of drag, and the central pressure for historical hurricanes in the Gulf.Despite evidence of a slight increase in the annual number of named storms over the past 50 years, presently there is no statistically significant trend in tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the long-term variability of tropical cyclones in the Gulf reflects the observed variability in the Atlantic basin as a whole. Analyses of hurricane winds from multiple sources suggest the presence of a bias toward overestimating the strength of winds in the HURDAT dataset from 7% to 15%. Results presented comparing HURDAT with other sources also show an overestimation of intensity at landfall, with an estimated bias of ~10%.Finally, a review of recent studies has shown that hurricane frequencies and intensities appear to vary on a much more localized scale than previously believed. This exacerbates the sampling problem for accurate characterization of hurricane parameters for design and operational applications.  相似文献   

Scaling wave impact pressures on vertical walls     

Giovanni Cuomo  William Allsop  Shigeo Takahashi 《Coastal Engineering》2010

It is widely recognized that the use of Froude similarity for scaling up wave impact pressures recorded during physical model tests may lead to over-estimation of impact maxima. Based on reviewing historical work dating back to the 30s and further developments in the 60s and 80s, a general method is presented that is suitable for scaling up impact pressures and rise times measured during small scale physical model tests. The method accounts for the effect of air leakage and is applicable to most wave impact loads. The model is applied to scale wave impact pressures on vertical walls and similar structures, and consistent correction factors for the Froude scaling law are derived.  相似文献   

Are modern metaheuristics successful in calibrating simple conceptual rainfall–runoff models?     

Adam P. Piotrowski  Maciej J. Napiorkowski  Jaroslaw J. Napiorkowski  Marzena Osuch  Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(4):606-625

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions.  相似文献